Bangladesh is considered one of the most disaster-prone and climate vulnerable countries in the world, regularly affected by both extreme events and hydrometeorological hazards associated with the annual monsoon. Bangladesh faces development challenges posed by its vulnerability to floods, cyclones, storm surges, tidal surges, erosion, and landslides. Its vulnerability is exacerbated by climate change induced increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, sea level rise, as well as impacts on the productivity of weather dependent economic sectors such as agriculture and shipping.

On May 21, 2020 Cyclone Amphan made landfall in the Indian State of West Bengal, close to the Bangladesh border as an extremely severe cyclone, affecting more than 13 million people and causing severe damage to infrastructure and livelihoods. During the cyclonic event, information regarding expected storm surge levels and potential weak spots in the polder system appeared to be limited and that a more robust forecasting and response system would be needed. More accurate and actionable information on extent of flooding from the rivers and cyclones having their landfall on the coast, could result in taking better informed decisions by the various competent authorities involved about emergency measures and/or evacuation orders and hereby reduce the socio-economic impact of storm surges, cyclones and floods and help save lives.

The objective of this assignment is “to assess storm surge, cyclone and flood forecasting in Bangladesh and provide recommendations to improve forecasting for decision-making”.

Following the recent impact of the cyclone and flooding, the consultants are carrying out a) technical and institutional analysis of the existing cyclone, storm surge, flood forecasting in Bangladesh, b) providing recommendations (both technical and institutional) to improve forecasting for decision-making around emergency measures (dissemination plans) for reduction of impacts in polder embankments, c) provide a high-level overview of flooding in Bangladesh for optimization of management by policy makers.

Period of involvement of Delta Context: August 2020 – March 2021